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Economy sustains recovery with 0.51% GDP growth in Q1 2021

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Nigeria’s economy is poised to sustain its recovery from recession as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.51 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2021. This marks two consecutive quarters of growth following the negative growth rates recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its latest GDP Quarterly report stated that the Q1 2021 growth rate was slower than the 1.87 per cent recorded in Q1 2020 but higher than 0.11% recorded in Q4 2020, indicating a slow but continuous recovery. Nevertheless, quarter on quarter, real GDP grew at -13.93% in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020, reflecting a generally slower pace of economic activities at the start of the year. NBS further noted that n the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N40.014 trillion in nominal terms.

This performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2020, which recorded aggregate GDP of N35.647 trillion, indicating a year on year nominal growth rate of 12.25 per cent. The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2021 was higher relative to 12.01per cent growth recorded in the first quarter of 2020, as well as the 10.07 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter. The report stated that for the Oil sector, “in Q1 2021, average daily oil production stood at 1.72 million barrels per day (mbpd), or 0.35mbpd lower than the average daily production of 2.07mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 but higher than the production volume of 1.56mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.”

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For the non-Oil sector, NBS stated the non-oil sector grew by 0.79 per cent in real terms in Q1 2021, which was -0.75 per cent points lower compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2020 and -0.89 per cent points lower than rates recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

“Growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by the Information and Communication (Telecommunication) sector while other drivers include Agriculture (Crop Production); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Real Estate; Construction and Human Health & Social Services. “In real terms, the Non-oil sector accounted for 90.75 per cent of aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2021, higher than its share in the first quarter of 2020 which was 90.50 per cent but lower than 94.13 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.”

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